Forecasting Research

The Tuljapurkar Lab is continuing the pioneering work of Shripad Tuljapurkar, Ronald Lee, and others in the field of stochastic population forecasting. Stochastic, or probabilistic, approaches represent a major advance over existing forecasting methods, and they have steadily been entering the mainstream. In 1996 and 1997, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office employed Mountain View Research population projections to make the first official probabilistic forecasts of future U.S. economic conditions.

Publications on Forecasting

1. Shripad Tuljapurkar and Carl Boe, "Mortality Change and Forecasting: How Much and How Little Do We Know?"
2. Shripad Tuljapurkar, "Forecasting Mortality Change: Questions and Assumptions."
3. Shripad Tuljapurkar, "Uncertainty in Demographic Projections: Meanings and Methods."
4. Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar (1994) "Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low," JASA 89, pp. 1175-89.
5. Shripad Tuljapurkar and Carl Boe (1997) Validation, Bayesian Methods and Information in Stochastic Forecasts."