Stanford University

We focus on concepts and theory for population & evolutionary dynamics, uncertainty & risk, understanding the past and predicting the future.

We study many species including:

tropical understory plants; 

temperate plants;

Soay sheep;

marmots;

Roe deer;

guppies;

humans.

Decades of hurricane tracks in study area in S E Florida

Decades of hurricane tracks in study area in S E Florida

NEW PAPER: hurricanes and other extreme events

[From featured topics]

Extreme events significantly impact ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency and/or magnitude with climate change. We introduce Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for ecologically relevant events, including hurricanes and wildfires,. We show how to downscale a GEV for hurricanes to an ecologically-relevant (~ 10^4 km2) spatial scale and use the results in a stochastic, empirically-based, population model. In a rapidly changing world, our methods show how to combine realistic models of extreme events and of ecological populations to assess ecological impacts, and to prioritize conservation actions for at-risk populations.

Traveling wave of female

NEW PAPER: aging is a traveling wave

[From featured topics]

We show, for five decades in 20 developed countries, that old-age survival follows an advancing front, like a traveling wave. The front lies between the 25th and 90th percentiles of old-age deaths, advancing with nearly constant long-term shape but annual fluctuations in speed. Our unexpected result has implications for biological hypotheses about human aging and for future mortality change.

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