Hurricanes and other extreme events

Decades of hurricane tracks in study area in S E Florida

Extreme events significantly impact ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency and/or magnitude with climate change. We introduce Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for ecologically relevant events, including hurricanes and wildfires,. We show how to downscale a GEV for hurricanes to an ecologically-relevant (~ 10^4 km2) spatial scale and use the results in a stochastic, empirically-based, population model. In a rapidly changing world, our methods show how to combine realistic models of extreme events and of ecological populations to assess ecological impacts, and to prioritize conservation actions for at-risk populations.